VIETNAM RICE EXPORT MARKET ALERT: OCTOBER 13, 2025
Analysis of Vietnam's rice market on Oct 13. Find current prices for Jasmine, 5% Broken Rice, and raw materials. Warning of tight exporter margins due to stable paddy costs in the Mekong Delta.
The Price Squeeze: Domestic Costs Hold Firm as Export Prices Plunge ↓ $15/Tonne
Executive Summary for Exporters: The Vietnamese rice export market is currently defined by a critical divergence: FOB export prices are hitting new lows, yet domestic paddy (raw material) costs remain stubbornly stable. This imbalance is creating significant margin pressure for millers and exporters.
1. Key Price Metrics: Export vs. Input Cost
| Rice Type & Metric | Price (USD/Tonne, FOB) | Change (vs. Last Week) | Input Cost (VND/kg, Raw Material) | Change (Input vs. 10/10) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| White Rice 5% Broken | $430 – $450 | ↓ $15 (Sharp Drop) | Input IR 504: 7,900 – 8,100 | No Change |
| Jasmine Rice | $486 – $490 | No Change | Input OM 18: 8,650 – 8,750 | No Change |
| 100% Broken Rice | $310 – $314 | ↓ $2 | N/A | N/A |
| Rice Bran (Cám) | N/A | N/A | 6,850 – 7,000 | ↑ Strong Increase |
B2B Takeaway: The dramatic drop in White Rice FOB price is not mirrored by a drop in input costs. This suggests that current FOB prices may represent a "hard floor" as further discounts will severely erode, or eliminate, exporter profitability.
2. Market Dynamics: Why Input Costs Are Stable
The stability of domestic paddy and input costs in the Mekong Delta (ĐBSCL) is driven by two key factors, which will limit further price negotiation in the coming week:
A. The "Low Harvest Volume" (Vãn Đồng) Factor
Paddy Prices Hold: Fresh paddy prices for key varieties (e.g., IR 50404, OM 18) are stable, still hovering around 5,000 – 6,000 VND/kg.
Reduced Supply: The market is in a period of "low harvest volume" (Vãn Đồng), reducing immediate supply pressure. Farmers and local traders are holding inventory, anticipating price recovery, particularly for high-quality Japonica rice and premium varieties.
B. Weather & Domestic Demand Buffer
Typhoon Impact: Continued heavy rainfall and localized flooding in Central and Northern Vietnam are expected.
Domestic Pull: This weather pattern typically increases immediate demand for staple rice for relief and regional restocking. This demand acts as a strong buffer, pulling supply away from export channels and sustaining the stable VND price level in the ĐBSCL. The overall Rice Capacity for export is being indirectly constrained.
Bran Price Surge: The significant rise in the price of Rice Bran (up to 7,000 VND/kg) provides millers with critical revenue support, which partially offsets the loss in margin from the finished rice export side.
3. Exporter Recommendation
White Rice (5% Broken): Buyers should recognize that the current price level ($430–$450/tonne) is likely near the minimum acceptable price for Vietnamese millers, given stable input costs. Large-scale negotiation beyond this point may be difficult.
Premium Rice (Jasmine/OM 18): This segment remains the most stable and reliable. Focus on securing contracts for these higher-margin varieties, as input costs are under less pressure, and global demand remains firm.
Data Sources: Information compiled and aggregated from various digital and industry reports.
**Tags/Labels:** VietnamRicePrice, RiceExport, JasmineRice, 5%BrokenRice, MekongDelta, MarketReport, VietnamAgriculture, PaddyPrice, RiceTrade, Oct2025, OM18, GlobalRiceMarket, RiceCapacity, japonica rice
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